The answer appears to be “yes”.
Geoffrey Mutai’s incredible performance at the ING New York City Marathon this past weekend (he took a full two minutes off the course record), has many people asking the following question: is a sub-two-hour marathon going to happen soon?
The Washington Post’s Elizabeth Flock writes about this topic and notes that Mutai himself thinks a sub-two-hour marathon is possible. He thinks it depends on the weather conditions and the shape of the runner.
The top American at New York, Olympic silver medalist Meb Keflezighi agrees with Mutai, saying “of course” it’s possible.
An interesting report was posted on Discovery.com that says the mark will be most-likely broken in the next 25 years on a flat and fast course like Berlin or London. Discovery’s report is based on a 1991 scientific paper by Mayo Clinic anesthesiologist and exercise researcher Michael Joyner.
Joyner concludes that it’s theoretically possible for someone to run the race in 1:57:58. A follow-up paper suggests this may happen in the next 12 to 25 years.
For More: The Washington Post